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Alex Barutha: I had time to put in some extra research today, so I’ve got more bets than usual that I like. I’ll keep the write-ups relatively brief but provide the main information that made me lean in a certain direction. To avoid things getting too clunky, I’m not specifying which sportsbook the odds are from, but you should be able to find them on nearly any site you typically use.
- Dejounte Murray over 1.5 steals (+155) at Washington
- Wizards have the second-highest TOV% over the past month
- Murray just 0.9 STL over the past month but his upside is appealing at plus money and has five steals in the past three games
- Jayson Tatum over 9.5 rebounds vs. Trail Blazers (-135)
- Blazers are 19th in ORB% and 29th in DRB% over the past month
- Tatum averaging 11.2 RPG since the All-Star Break, Rob Williams still out
- Russell Westbrook over 3.5 turnovers vs. Raptors (-115)
- Toronto has the second-highest opponent TOV% in the past month
- Westbrook averaging 4.3 TOV since joining Clippers
- Clint Capela under 11.5 points at Washington (-115)
- Washington allowing the third-fewest shots at the rim over the past month
- Capela averaging 11.3 PPG since the All-Star break and his minutes continue to fluctuate
- Tyler Herro under 2.5 threes vs. Cavaliers (-104)
- Over the past month, Cleveland allows the second-fewest non-corner three-point attempts
- 38% of Herro’s shots are non-corner threes
- Isaac Okoro over 0.5 threes at Miami (-150)
- Miami allowing the fourth-most corner three-point attempts over the past month
- 38% of Okoro’s shots are from the corner, averaging 2.8 three-point attempts over the past five games
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes vs. Bulls (+100)
- Chicago allowing the most corner three-point attempts over the past month
- KCP takes 21% of his shots from the corner, in the 95th percentile for combo guards.
- DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points at Denver (-115)
- Denver allowing the fourth-most mid-range attempts over the past month
- DeRozan lives in the mid-range (71% of his attempts) and is averaging 23.4 PPG over the past five games
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Fred VanVleet over 20.5 points at Clippers (-104)
FanDuel, 1:45pm ET
Ken Crites: For the season, the Clippers have been good at guarding point guards. They rank 7th in the Association, giving up 23.4 points per game to PGs. But that has changed since they put Russell Westbrook in as a starter. Over the past three games, the Clippers gave up 25 points to Tyus Jones(!), 33 to De’Aaron Fox and 34 to Jordan Poole. FVV has been extremely streaky this season, with both ugly streaks and hot waves. He’s currently on a two-game hot streak with 21 points at Denver and 25 points at Washington. I’m hoping the good times continue to roll in LA versus Westbrook. But, frankly, I’m in a slump and down to 21-18 on the season, so feel free to fade.
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Clint Capela double-double versus the Wizards (+116)
Caesars Sportsbook- 3 p.m.
Michael Gillow: Capela has recorded a double-double in each of his last four games and is averaging 12.1 points and 11.3 rebounds on the season. Considering the Wizards rank 11th in the NBA with 44.0 rebounds per game, getting plus odds on Capela’s double-double is just too good to pass up.
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