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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction, Odds and College Basketball Betting Picks for WCC Tournament Final



The West Coast Conference will conclude what has been a thrilling tournament by crowning a champion on Tuesday night. Both the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels got all they could handle in Monday’s semifinals but were able to prevail. As a result, the top two seeds are now set to square off in the WCC Tournament Final. This game sets up as a rubber match after the schools split a pair of regular-season head-to-head meetings. The Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s odds and college basketball betting picks view the 2-seed as a slight favorite.

The following game preview provides the college basketball betting odds, trends and KenPom ratings before sharing our official Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction for the WCC Tournament Championship Game.

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks

WCC Tournament Final
(2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-5, 14-2 WCC) vs. (1) Saint Mary’s Gaels (26-6, 14-2 WCC)
Time: 9 p.m. EST
Venue: Orleans Arena — Las Vegas, NV
Coverage: ESPN

Gonzaga Bulldogs Preview

Gonzaga got a tougher test than many were envisioning in Monday’s semifinal game against San Francisco. The Bulldogs were able to answer every run the Dons made and ultimately pulled away late to win by 11. However, they failed to cover what was a 14-point college basketball betting spread. Nonetheless, Mark Few’s squad will have a chance to capture its fourth consecutive WCC Tournament championship. It would also be the school’s 19th title since Few took over the program.

Saint Mary’s Gaels Preview

After the road loss to Gonzaga in the regular season finale, Saint Mary’s got back to its winning ways in the Semifinal Round of the WCC Tournament. Five minutes into the second half, the Gaels held a 26-point lead over BYU and appeared to be in cruise control. However, Randy Bennett’s team struggled against full-court pressure and had its lead cut all the way down to four in the closing minutes before ultimately sealing the deal. Saint Mary’s will be seeking its first WCC Tournament title since 2019.

Credit: AP Photo/Young Kwak

Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s College Basketball Betting Picks and Odds

College basketball betting odds for Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s can be found at BetOnline Sportsbook.

Moneyline: GON: (-145) | SMC: (+125)
Point Spread: GON: -2.5 (-110) | SMC: +2.5 (-110)
Total: 138.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

College Basketball KenPom Ratings

The following table displays the KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings for the two teams involved in Tuesday’s WCC Tournament Final. In addition to overall efficiency margin, offensive, defensive and tempo ratings are included.

Team Overall AdjEM (Rk) AdjO (Rk) AdjD (Rk) AdjT (Rk)
Gonzaga +22.70 (10) 124.1 (1) 101.4 (90) 70.4 (43)
Saint Mary’s +23.25 (7) 114.9 (33) 91.6 (7) 62.2 (359)
  • Eight of the Bulldogs’ last nine games overall have gone OVER the total.
  • Bulldogs are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
  • Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.
  • The OVER has hit in six of the Gaels’ last eight games overall.
  • Betting favorites are 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s head-to-head meetings.

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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s Prediction | College Basketball Betting Picks

Based on how the two regular-season meetings between these teams played out, it’s no surprise to see Gonzaga favored by a small number for Tuesday’s rubber match in Las Vegas. Saint Mary’s was outclassed for the better part of the first matchup in Moraga before Aidan Mahaney helped lead a late comeback to force overtime. The second meeting in Spokane saw the Zags race out to a 13-point halftime lead and win fairly comfortably.

As for the WCC Tournament Final, it’s difficult to love jumping in on point spread with either team. The fact that Gonzaga is laying points defies many advanced metrics that actually view Saint Mary’s as the better team. In addition, the likelihood of the Gaels losing the game by two points or less is a very slim. If anything, backing SMC on the moneyline at a plus price feels like the way to go.

With all of that being said, the game total seems to be the best option for bettors looking to have action on this matchup. Playing the Over in any game involving the Gaels is somewhat daunting given that they rank bottom five in adjusted tempo and average possessions on a per-game basis. However, Gonzaga counteracts that with a focus on playing with speed and the top-ranked adjusted offense in the country.

The presence of so many gifted scorers on both rosters further supports a play on the Over. The Bulldogs will continue to lean heavily on Drew Timme and Julian Strawther, but less heralded names such as Anton Watson are more than capable of making an impact. In addition to Mahaney, Saint Mary’s has a veteran playmaker in Logan Johnson, several sharpshooters and a big man in Mitchell Saxen who is capable of doing damage in the post.

It’s also interesting to note how recent games in Las Vegas between these two programs have gone. Dating back to 2016, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have met in the WCC Tournament Final four times. Three of those four games surpassed tonight’s posted over/under of 138.5 by more than 10 points.

OVER THE TOTAL will be our official college basketball betting Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction for the WCC Tournament Championship Game.

For what it’s worth, the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives Gonzaga a 55.9% chance to win this game outright.

Bet: OVER 138.5 (-110 at BetOnline Sportsbook)

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