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Hot and Cold Teams Against the Spread 2/3/2023



The all-star break is looming, and teams are battling for wins and jockeying for valuable playoff positioning. Over the last couple weeks, some teams have been heating up at the right time, while others have been falling short of expectations. Here we will look at the hot and cold betting teams ATS and against the total.

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The Hot

Phoenix Suns:

While Devin Booker remains out, the supporting cast for the Suns have stepped up, and they have gone 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games, going 6-4 straight up in that span. The Suns have not been a profitable team for a majority of the season, as they were expected to build on their 64-18 campaign last year but have fallen well short of the mark and sit with a 27-26 record as the all-star break approaches. Deandre Ayton signed a supermax contract in the offseason and is finally starting to show his worth. He’s posted 7 double doubles over the last 10 games, including a 19-point, 20-rebound performance against the Mavericks. The Suns will not finish at the top of the West for the second straight season. However, if they continue to play solid basketball, they could make a deep playoff run. Booker is due back in the coming weeks. And once they get their star back, this will become a very dangerous squad.

Orlando Magic:

The Orlando Magic have been covering spreads all season long, going 29-21-2 ATS, including a 7-3 run over the last 10 games. While they haven’t been winning games, going just 20-32 this season, and 4-6 over the last 10, the bookies continue to give them too many free points, and the young Magic squad keeps games close. They’ve been a favorite just 6 times this season, going 2-4 in those games. Paolo Banchero has been on a tear to start his NBA career, putting up 20.5 PPG to go along with 3.6 Assists and 6.5 Rebounds. The length and athleticism on this team makes them a difficult opponent for any NBA team, and the Magic will be a problem in years to come. For now, keep grabbing those free points as this young Magic squad will keep getting covers.

The Cold

Indiana Pacers:

The Indiana Pacers have gone a woeful 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games, winning just 1 game in that span. The Pacers started off hot to begin the season and found themselves in 6th place, sitting 21-17 a month ago. However, once Tyrese Haliburton got injured, things fell off the rails. A once automatic Pacers offense had lost its character, and they couldn’t generate points without their star point guard. On February 2, Haliburton made his return from injury. And while the Pacers lost to the Lakers 112-111, Haliburton scored 26 points to go along with 12 assists, as the Pacers covered the spread as 2-point home underdogs. The bookies incorrectly assessed Haliburton’s importance to this team. Now that he is back, they will be out of this column in no time.

San Antonio Spurs:

The Spurs are a mess. Unlike the Pacers, there is no light at the end of the tunnel for the Spurs. They have gone 2-8 ATS in the last 10 games, winning just 1 of those games. They have already started looking ahead at the loaded 2023 draft class and remain on the ‘don’t bet’ list until they start getting an adequate number of free points. Just 2 of their 9 losses have been by single digits, yet they have only been double digit underdogs once in that span. Young stars like Keldon Johnson and the injured Devin Vassell will keep trying to win games and prove they belong in the NBA, but the Spurs will not be finding themselves in the win column very often. Once they start getting double-digit point spreads, they will start covering again. However, until then, stay far away from the free falling Spurs.

High Scorers:

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have once again found their scoring touch, cashing the Over 8 times in the last 10 games. They have scored 110+ in all but one of those games, scoring 130+ in 5 of those games. Trae Young has been finding his offensive form, averaging 10.2 Assists over his last 10 games, and commanding the floor on the offensive end. There is no doubt the Hawks will need to improve their defensive workrate if they are to compete in the playoffs, but their high scoring offense has been able to compensate for that against the weaker teams. They suddenly find themselves in 8th place in the East, and will hope Young’s hot hand, combined with Dejounte Murray’s absurd shot making ability, will be enough to keep the offense flowing.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors once possessed one of the most formidable defensive units in the league, but those days are no more, cashing the Over in 7 of their last 10 games. DPOY candidate OG Anunoby injured his wrist over a week ago, increasing the gaps on the defensive end. Not only have the Raptors had low closing totals, with 5 of their last 10 closing at 225 or lower, but they have been allowing tons of points. Additionally, 7 of their last 10 games finished with a single digit margin of victory, forcing tons of fouling and free throws late in contests. Once the totals start adjusting themselves, and the late game circumstances change, the Raptors won’t find themselves in this column for much longer.

Low Scorers:

Miami Heat:

The Miami Heat have been a strong defensive unit for years, and they continue to clamp down on their opponents. They have finished Under in 7 of the last 10 games, but that is through no fault of the bookies. They have seen their total close at 220 or more just twice in the last 10 games, and still find a way to finish below it. The Heat score the fewest points in the league and play at the 27th slowest pace. A surefire way to cash Unders is to hold opponents to double digit points, something the Heat have done in 5 of their last 10. A slow pace of play and stellar defense has thrust the Heat back into playoff contention. And until we start seeing sub 210 totals, stay away from any Heat Overs.

Sacramento Kings:

The Kings have been one of the surprise teams of the season and look poised to reach the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. They find themselves in this column due to the sky-high totals we are used to seeing from the Kings, and they’ve finished short in 7 of the last 10 games. Their lowest total over the last 10 games has been 236, and they have seen 5 of their games close at 240 or higher. The Kings play at a fast pace of play and give up plenty of points. De-Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis have been leading the way for the Kings. And until their totals come back down to reality, they will keep cashing the Under.

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