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NBA Betting Picks for Monday 2/12/24: Will the Warriors Stay Hot in Tough Road Test?

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The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire’s NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks

Under 231 (-110)

The Denver Nuggets have surged over their last 10 games with a 7-3 record, causing a logjam at the top of the Western Conference with four teams within 0.5 games of first place. The under has also gone 8-2 over the last 10 games thanks to Denver’s rolling defense, which has the 13th-best rating.

In their previous game, the Nuggets allowed over 110 points for the first time since January 25th. Opponents are totaling 110.4 points per game (PPG) over Denver’s past 10 contests, and this is largely inflated by the Sacramento Kings‘ 135 points on February 9th. Only 2 of the Nuggets’ last 10 opponents have reached 110 points. Denver’s defense has a tough task ahead, though, as the Milwaukee Bucks boast the fourth-best offensive rating in the Association.

The pace of play could be a big determining factor for the total. Milwaukee plays at the fourth-fastest pace, while Denver has the second-slowest pace. Controlling the possession battle could decide who will control the pace.

The two teams are pretty much even in defensive rebounding percentage with the Bucks carrying the 13th-best mark while the Nuggets have the 16th-best mark. Offensive rebounding is another story as Denver has the fifth-best mark, whereas Milwaukee has the fourth-worst number.

The Nuggets’ defense also excels in the ideal area to stave off the Bucks’ attack. Milwaukee totals the fifth-most three-point makes per contest, but Denver gives up the second-fewest three-point attempts and makes each game.

The under is 7-1 across the Bucks’ last eight games. With Denver’s ability to control the pace and limit threes, this game could be headed for the under — especially when considering each team’s recent trends.

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz

Jazz Moneyline (-102)

The Golden State Warriors have got the ball rolling with four consecutive wins and covers against the spread (ATS). Golden State has a tough road test ahead as the Utah Jazz are 10-2 over their last 12 home games. The Warriors could be on upset alert as one-point favorites.

Both teams score at a high rate with the Warriors totaling 119.0 PPG (6th-most) and the Jazz averaging 117.8 PPG (11th-most). This looks like a nearly even matchup across the board. For example, Golden State attempts the fourth-most threes per game while Utah surrenders the seventh-most shots from deep in each contest. The Jazz average the 4th-most points in the paint while attempting the 10th-most threes. Utah could be successful in both departments with the Warriors allowing the 8th-most three-point shots and 13th-most points in the paint.

The offenses should find success with each defense ranking among the NBA’s bottom-11 units.

So which team could have the upper hand? These are elite offensive rebounding teams with Golden State holding the third-best offensive rebounding percentage while Utah touts the best mark in the category. The Jazz have rebounded at a slightly higher rate over their last five games at 14.2 offensive rebounds per game, and the Warriors have totaled 13.0 offensive rebounds per game during the span.

Utah’s paint defense has also shown some potential with the fourth-most blocks per game. Meanwhile, Golden State averages the 7th-fewest points in the paint while carrying the 15th-worst two-point percentage. The Warriors have fielded a small frontcourt in recent games with Jonathan Kuminga (6-foot-7) and Draymond Green (6-foot-6) in the starting lineup. While Kuminga (114.6 defensive rating) and Green (114.5 defensive rating) are among the team’s top defensive ratings, Golden State could simply be outsized against the Jazz’s John Collins (6-foot-9) and Lauri Markkanen (7-foot).

Ultimately, I like Utah to pull off the upset as home dogs thanks to their potential advantage in the frontcourt. Winning the paint and rebounding battle could be the difference with both offenses drawing favorable matchups.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers

Over 223.5 (-110)

One of the nightcaps for today’s 10-game slate is a showdown between Western Conference powerhouses in the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles has a chance to grab the 1 seed as they are only 0.5 games behind the T-Wolves for first place.

Minnesota’s clear strength all season has been their top-rated defense. For the Clippers, their offense has steadily climbed the ranks and now has the third-best offensive rating. Los Angeles’ three-point shooting has been lethal with the top shooting percentage in the league, and they have converted 43.7% of their shots from deep over the last five games.

While the Wolves allow the fourth-fewest three-point attempts per game, their perimeter defense has taken a tumble over their previous two contests with opponents shooting 41.3% from deep. One of Minnesota’s top defenders — Jaden McDaniels (111.8 defensive rating) — is also questionable, which could leave the T-Wolves’ three-point defense even more vulnerable.

Missing McDaniels would also be a big blow for attempting to slow the Clippers’ wings Kawhi Leonard (24.2 PPG) and Paul George (22.5 PPG). L.A. could have their way against the Timberwolves’ elite defense, which suggests the over.

Minnesota — who averages 113.4 PPG on the season — has been like an erupting volcano over their last two games, averaging 126.0 PPG while making 41 of 86 three-point shots (47.7%). L.A. ranks outside the top 10 in opponent three-point percentage, three-point shots per game, and made threes each contest. The T-Wolves’ starting frontcourt of Karl-Anthony Towns (7-foot) and Rudy Gobert (7-foot-1) have a size advantage against the Clippers’ frontcourt: Leonard (6-foot-7) and Ivica Zubac (7-foot). While Minnesota totals the 14th-fewest points in the paint, they could have more success than usual around the rim.

With the over 3-1 in the Wolves’ past four games, I’m taking the over for this must-see Western Conference clash.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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