Toledo vs. Miami (Ohio) prediction, odds, line, spread, start time: 2023 MAC Tournament picks, best bets

The 2023 MAC Tournament begins on Thursday with a quartet of games at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland. The opener of the day pits the No. 1 seed Toledo Rockets against the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in a late morning tilt. Toledo is 25-6 overall and 16-2 in conference play, including a two-game regular season sweep over the RedHawks. The Redhawks are 12-19 overall and 6-12 in conference play, though Miami has won four of its last five games.

Tip-off is at 11 a.m. ET in Cleveland. Caesars Sportsbook lists Toledo as a 13-point favorite, while the over/under is 156 in the latest Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo odds. Before you make any Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo:

• Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo spread: Toledo -13 
• Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo over/under: 156 points 
• Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo money line: Toledo -1100, Miami +700 
• MIA: The Redhawks are 10-7-1 against the spread in MAC game 
• TOL: The Rockets are 12-6 against the spread in MAC games 
• Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo picks: See picks here

Why Miami (Ohio) can cover

The RedHawks have three players averaging at least 14 points per game this season, headlined by senior guard Mekhi Lairy. He is averaging 17.4 points and 4.0 assists per game with 60.7% true shooting this season. Miami leads the MAC with 55.6% shooting inside the 3-point arc in conference play, and the RedHawks have a friendly matchup against Toledo’s shaky defense. The Rockets are outside the top 250 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Toledo is poor on the defensive glass, securing only 70.3% of available rebounds. Toledo also yields 53.1% shooting to opponents on 2-point attempts. 

On defense, Miami is No. 2 in the conference in opponent shooting, including a 31.3% mark on 3-point attempts. The RedHawks are also No. 2 in the MAC in assist rate allowed, and Toledo struggles to create second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass. The Rockets secure only 28.3% of missed shots in conference play.

Why Toledo can cover

Toledo is one of the best offensive teams in the country this season. The Rockets are led by unanimous MAC player of the year RayJ Dennis, who is in the top 15 of the country in assists per game (5.9) and assist-to-turnover ratio (3.1). Dennis is No. 2 in the MAC with 19.4 points per game, and he is shooting 52.1% from the field against conference opponents. Toledo is No. 2 in the country in scoring offense, averaging 85.7 points per game, and the Rockets are also in the top ten of the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

The Rockets are shooting 49.6% from the field, ranking in the top five nationally, and Toledo is No. 2 in the country with 40.7% shooting from 3-point distance. Toledo also leads the MAC with 78.9% free throw shooting, and the Rockets maximize the fantastic shooting with top-tier ball security. Toledo commits a turnover on only 13.7% of offensive possessions, and rank No. 2 in the MAC with 15.2 assists per game. The Rockets also have edges against Miami’s defense, with the RedHawks ranking below the MAC average in defensive rebound rate, turnover rate, steal rate, and free throw rate allowed.

How to make Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with ten players projected to score at least eight points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo? And which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.